Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 21.00% -60.00% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 0.81 ======= 0.89 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
1 34.20% -39.00% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 1.32 ======= 1.44 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
2 47.30% -18.30% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 1.83 ======= 1.99 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
3 60.50% 2.70% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 2.34 ======= 2.55 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
4 73.70% 23.70% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 2.85 ======= 3.11 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
5 86.80% 44.40% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 3.35 ======= 3.66 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
6 100.00% 65.40% <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 3.86 ======= 4.22 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-23 by variable amounts

=======

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-22 by variable amounts

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

    <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
  • Effective \(R0\): 0.81
  • % of original R0: 21
  • % Increase from current: -60

=======
  • Effective \(R0\): 0.89
  • % of original R0: 21
  • % Increase from current: -60
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

    Scenario 1

    Equal to:

      <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
    • Effective \(R0\): 1.32
    • % of original R0: 34.2
    • % Increase from current: -39

    =======
  • Effective \(R0\): 1.44
  • % of original R0: 34.2
  • % Increase from current: -39
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

    Scenario 2

    Equal to:

      <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
    • Effective \(R0\): 1.83
    • % of original R0: 47.3
    • % Increase from current: -18.3

    =======
  • Effective \(R0\): 1.99
  • % of original R0: 47.3
  • % Increase from current: -18.3
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

    Scenario 3

    Equal to:

      <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
    • Effective \(R0\): 2.34
    • % of original R0: 60.5
    • % Increase from current: 2.7

    =======
  • Effective \(R0\): 2.55
  • % of original R0: 60.5
  • % Increase from current: 2.7
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

    Scenario 4

    Equal to:

      <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
    • Effective \(R0\): 2.85
    • % of original R0: 73.7
    • % Increase from current: 23.7

    =======
  • Effective \(R0\): 3.11
  • % of original R0: 73.7
  • % Increase from current: 23.7
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

    Scenario 5

    Equal to:

      <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
    • Effective \(R0\): 3.35
    • % of original R0: 86.8
    • % Increase from current: 44.4

    =======
  • Effective \(R0\): 3.66
  • % of original R0: 86.8
  • % Increase from current: 44.4
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

    Scenario 6

    Equal to:

      <<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html
    • Effective \(R0\): 3.86
    • % of original R0: 100
    • % Increase from current: 65.4

    =======
  • Effective \(R0\): 4.22
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 65.4
  • >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html