Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
% of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
% Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-07-23) level of social distancing / contact rate
% Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-07-22) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	21.00%	-60.00%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 0.81 ======= 0.89 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
1	34.20%	-39.00%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 1.32 ======= 1.44 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
2	47.30%	-18.30%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 1.83 ======= 1.99 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
3	60.50%	2.70%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 2.34 ======= 2.55 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
4	73.70%	23.70%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 2.85 ======= 3.11 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
5	86.80%	44.40%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 3.35 ======= 3.66 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html
6	100.00%	65.40%	<<<<<<< HEAD:Archive_July/docs/scenarios.html 3.86 ======= 4.22 >>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-23 by variable amounts

=======

Increase contact rate on 2020-07-22 by variable amounts

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 0.81
% of original R0: 21
% Increase from current: -60

=======

Effective \(R0\): 0.89

% of original R0: 21

% Increase from current: -60

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Scenario 1

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 1.32
% of original R0: 34.2
% Increase from current: -39

=======

Effective \(R0\): 1.44

% of original R0: 34.2

% Increase from current: -39

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Scenario 2

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 1.83
% of original R0: 47.3
% Increase from current: -18.3

=======

Effective \(R0\): 1.99

% of original R0: 47.3

% Increase from current: -18.3

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Scenario 3

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 2.34
% of original R0: 60.5
% Increase from current: 2.7

=======

Effective \(R0\): 2.55

% of original R0: 60.5

% Increase from current: 2.7

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Scenario 4

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 2.85
% of original R0: 73.7
% Increase from current: 23.7

=======

Effective \(R0\): 3.11

% of original R0: 73.7

% Increase from current: 23.7

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Scenario 5

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 3.35
% of original R0: 86.8
% Increase from current: 44.4

=======

Effective \(R0\): 3.66

% of original R0: 86.8

% Increase from current: 44.4

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html

Scenario 6

Equal to:

Effective \(R0\): 3.86
% of original R0: 100
% Increase from current: 65.4

=======

Effective \(R0\): 4.22

% of original R0: 100

% Increase from current: 65.4

>>>>>>> 5433b65d398d6e3952ceba2c5944f5b6aefe8e26:docs/scenarios.html